Updated Tuesday Afternoon...
The major headline coming from the 12z model data this afternoon is that the track of low pressure for Tuesday night and Wednesday has shifted to the southeast by roughly 50-75 miles. This causes a dramatic adjustment to where moderate to heavy wet snow will fall on Wednesday, and also provides a sharp cutoff of where accumulations take place.
The number one difficulty with this storm system has determining when the precipitation goes from a rain/snow mix over to snow and how much sticks to the ground versus melting. As I mentioned earlier, this time of the year when the ground is not frozen and snow is occurring during the daylight hours, in order for the flakes to stick to the roads, it has to be coming down heavily. Even then, a lot that does accumulate during the day on paved surfaces (excluding bridges & overpasses) will melt and cause slushy, yet slippery travel conditions. That being said, when we take the official measurements, it is on a wooden board that would be less prone to melting and thus more could tally up in the official measurement than what you might have on your driveway when all is said and done.
Now down to the nitty gritty. A mix of rain/snow moves into North Central Wisconsin overnight. As mentioned, with the shift to the southeast of the low, there is a cut off of the moisture to the northwest of Medford, Tomahawk and Eagle River. Thus in Phillips, Park Falls, Prentice and Lac Du Flambeau not as much of the mix or snow will fall or accumulate. On the other hand, the potential for more in the way of accumulation has increased for the remainder of the area. I believe the changeover to mainly snow takes place during the mid morning hours Wednesday (7-10am), with moderate to heavy wet snow falling up through the late afternoon before tapering off from southwest to northeast. As tends to be the case with a fair number of winter storms, we will have to keep close tabs on where that band of heaviest snow sets up on Wednesday morning in our viewing area. Any shifts in one direction or the other swings the amount of accumulating snow over a given location. On to how much could fall across the region.
Western Taylor & Price Counties...Tr.-1".
Necedah, Wisconsin Rapids, Medford, Wausau, Merrill & points north along Hwy 51..2-5"
Stevens Point, Clintonville, Eagle River & Laona...4-7"
For a look back at the previous maps I had here, look below. Otherwise, check back for more updates as the storm gets closer.
Here's the anticipated position of this storm for Tuesday, November 8th...
Now comes the fun part, that being the finer points as to what kind of effects we could experience in North Central Wisconsin. Below are three possible scenarios for the low to head. I've color coded them in the picture below and for simplicity I'll define them as Green=Track #1, Orange=Track #2, Blue=Track #3.
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