Major Winter Storm Feb 28-29th

Updated 2/28 3pm

To be honest, this is a tricky forecast for snowfall accumulations in Central Wisconsin. This storm does not follow logic when it comes to the freezing levels at 850 mb or 540 thickness for precip. to stay mainly snow. That's if you believe a couple of the wx models in their depictions. I still strongly think that from hwy 10 on south, this is a wintry mix/rain event, which may be a significant accumulation of ice. Around hwy 29, it literally comes down to how heavy the precip. is falling to be snow or more sleet/frz rain overnight into Wed morning. More mix, closer to 5-6" in Wausau, more snow closer to 8" in Wausau. The Northwoods are going to see mainly snow, with up to a foot in the works. Heaviest accumulations in NW WI toward Duluth.


 

Sunday 2/26 7pm

Surprisingly, North Central Wisconsin has gone just about the entire winter to this point without a significant snowfall.  True there were a few storms that put down 6-8" across parts of the Northwoods earlier in the winter, while the most in Wausau was around 4" with one storm.  It appears that the ingredients may be coming together for a storm that could produce moderate to heavy snowfall in the region.  Yes, enough that you may have to break out the snow blower.

First, let's get down to the basics.  One of the things I learned while a student was to "predict the high, predict the storm." In this case, we're talking about high pressure which from Tuesday to Wednesday will be located just south of Hudson Bay in Canada.  This plays a big role in attempting to lock in cold enough temperatures, and also helps to keep the track of low pressure to our south.  The one side effect with any Canadian high in this scenario is how the dry air coming in from the NE causes a delay in the snowfall, or in some cases cuts off the flakes from flying on the northern edge of the storm.

Meantime, this wave of low pressure which will be coming out of the Rockies will be tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture.  The various computer models have been showing this surge of precipitation into the western Great Lakes, which means a good deal of snow, a wintry mix or rain could fall.

 

 


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